‘Cuban Conundrum’ vexes pollsters, Obama

Call it the Cuban Conundrum — a problem for pollsters who find Florida Hispanics are far more Republican than anywhere else in the nation.

It’s on full display in the latest Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Hispanic Florida voters showing President Barack Obama clings to a narrow 51-47 percent lead over Republican Mitt Romney.

But nationwide, the poll shows, Obama leads by a far bigger margin among likely Hispanic voters.

The difference in Florida: Cuban voters. Without them, the FIU poll shows, Obama would handily win likely Florida Hispanic voters 65-32 percent.

Not only are Cubans reliable Republican voters — they’re about 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s registered Republicans — but they’re also more likely to answer surveys like the FIU poll.

“Cuban-American voters pick up the phone and answer. They want to be heard,” said Eduardo Gamarra, an FIU professor of Latin American studies who conducted the poll with his political research firm, the Newlink Group.

The sheer response rate and strong backing for Romney among voters of Cuban ancestry has cropped up in other Florida polls. Together, the polls could be detecting an unrivaled intensity for the Republican ticket that could help keep Obama from a second Florida win — and therefore a second-term in the White House.

Gamarra, a registered Democrat of Bolivian descent, actually had to scale back the number of Cuban-American respondents in the poll, a process known as “weighting,” which he prefers not to do.

Gamarra stopped polling in South Florida all together when he concluded the three-day survey last week in order to reach other Hispanics — those of Puerto Rican, Mexican and South and Central-American ancestry.

“Polling Florida Hispanics is extremely difficult,” Gamarra said. “It’s not just a Cuban conundrum, but it’s a Florida and Miami-Dade conundrum.”

Gamarra weighted the poll to reflect a Cuban response rate of 40 percent because Cubans, though they account for about a third of Hispanic voters in Florida, tend to vote in disproportionately high numbers.

The poll reflects a response rate of 30 percent among Puerto Ricans, who account for an estimated 28 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida and tend to live in Central Florida, where they vote more Democratic.

Thanks to the strong Cuban-American influence, Obama is barely winning on the issues in Florida, according to the poll of 1,100 likely Florida Hispanic voters. A separate poll of national voters sampled 1,000 respondents. The bilingual Florida poll has an error margin of 2.9 percentage points, the national poll of 3.1 percentage points.

Obama beats Romney 51-49 percent in Florida on who’s better in managing the economy. The national Obama-Romney numbers on the question: 70-30.

On handling foreign policy or managing immigration, Obama edges Romney 53-47 percent in Florida. The national numbers: 71-29 in Obama’s favor.

In Florida, 43 percent want to keep Obamacare intact; 35 percent say scrap it and 22 percent say keep some parts. Nationally, 60 percent want to keep Obamacare intact; 20 percent say scrap it and 20 percent say keep some parts.

Obama does best in Florida when asked who’s looking out for Latinos. He beats Romney, 51-43 percent. Nationally, Obama wins: 70-27 percent.

Manuel Pardo, the former Sweetwater cop who killed nine people, claiming they were “scum of the earth,” will be executed Dec. 11, the governor’s office said Tuesday. 1351644004

President Obama comfortably leads Mitt Romney among Hispanics nationwide, but only narrowly in Florida — thanks to conservative Cuban-American voters.

It will take several days before the judge decides whether Wonder should face criminal charges.

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Prosecutors and defense lawyers began to make their cases Tuesday in a “Stand Your Ground’’ hearing.

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State amendments: from health reform to tax relief

A synopsis of the proposed constitutional amendments on the Nov. 6 ballot. The amendments must receive at least 60 percent of the vote to pass.

There is no Amendment 7

AMENDMENT 1, HEALTHCARE SERVICES

THE AMENDMENT: This amendment is aimed at prohibiting the government from directly or indirectly compelling employers to buy or provide healthcare coverage for their employees. It also makes clear in the constitution that people may pay healthcare providers directly for care — and don’t have to have insurance, and can’t be forced to pay a penalty or tax for paying out of pocket for healthcare.

CONTEXT: Opponents say the proposal would have no effect at nullifying its intended target, the federal healthcare individual mandate, because of the supremacy of federal law over state law. Backers say it would prevent future attempts to put similar healthcare requirements on residents.

AMENDMENT 2: HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION FOR VETERANS

THE AMENDMENT: The proposal would provide an additional homestead exemption to wounded veterans who were not residents of the state when they entered military service. The proposal would exempt from taxation a property’s value between $50,000 and $75,000.

CONTEXT: Florida law already provides an additional homestead exemption to military personnel disabled while in combat. The amendment simply expands the exemption to disabled veterans who may have been residents of other states when the disability occurred but who now reside in Florida.

AMENDMENT 3: REVENUE LIMITATION

THE AMENDMENT: Proposed Amendment 3 would replace the existing state revenue cap, which is based on personal income growth in Florida, with a new one based on inflation and population changes. If the state were to collect more in taxes than the formula allows, it would have to be put into a reserve fund, and not spent, and at some point would have to be used for reducing local property taxes for schools or returned to taxpayers. The cap could be raised only with a super majority vote in the Legislature.

CONTEXT: The state has never actually hit the current cap.

AMENDMENT 4: PROPERTY TAX RESTRICTIONS

THE AMENDMENT: The proposal would reduce the cap on tax assessment increases from 10 percent to 5 percent a year on commercial property. The plan also would provide an additional, temporary property tax break for first-time homebuyers and prevents tax assessments from going up when the market value of the property goes down.

CONTEXT: Backers say the amendment will continue efforts to rein in the increase in property taxes by expanding protections now afforded to homeowners. Opponents, including the Florida Association of Counties, say the measure will further hamstring cash-strapped local governments, which rely on property tax revenue for the bulk of their funding.

AMENDMENT 5: RULES FOR STATE COURTS

THE AMENDMENT: Proposed Amendment 5 would require Senate confirmation for state Supreme Court justices appointed by the governor and make it easier for lawmakers to influence court procedural rules, allowing them to change them with a simple majority vote, rather than a super majority. The proposal also would give lawmakers more access to confidential files involving judges accused of misconduct.

CONTEXT: Many lawyers and judges who oppose the amendment say lawmakers are trying to assert more control over a judiciary that many Republican legislators think has surpassed its own authority too often.

It is very unlikely that the peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC narcoguerrillas will come to a good end. It is even possible that they’re not a good idea.

For 53 years, the Cuban exile community in South Florida and other parts of the world has been combating the Castro brothers and their totalitarian system of government. We have been fighting what seems to be, at times, an endless battle. A struggle we live each day over a café Cubano or by reminiscing with our grandparents about the Cuba of the past.

State and local governments, struggling to emerge from the aftermath of the financial crisis, face another looming funding gap: in their public pensions. These plans hold almost $3 trillion in assets and cover more than 10 percent of U.S. workers, so they’re an important force in the economy.

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Disney to make new 'Star Wars' films, buy Lucas co

LOS ANGELES -- A decade since George Lucas said "Star Wars" was finished on the big screen, a new trilogy under new ownership is destined for theaters after The Walt Disney Co. announced Tuesday that it would buy Lucasfilm Ltd. from him for $4.05 billion.

The seventh movie, with a working title of "Episode 7," is set for release in 2015. Episodes 8 and 9 will follow. The trilogy will continue the story of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo and Princess Leia beyond "Return of the Jedi," the third film released and the sixth in the saga. After that, Disney plans a new "Star Wars" movie every two or three years. Lucas will serve as creative consultant in the new movies.

"I'm doing this so that the films will have a longer life," Lucas, the 68-year-old creator of the series and sole owner of Lucasfilm, said in an interview posted on YouTube. "I get to be a fan now ... I sort of look forward to it. It's a lot more fun actually, than actually having to go out into the mud and snow."

Disney CEO Bob Iger said Lucasfilm had already developed an extensive storyline on the next trilogy, and Episode 7 was now in early-stage development. He said he talked with Lucas about buying the company from him a year and a half ago, but they didn't decide on a deal until very recently as Lucas set in motion his retirement.

"The last 'Star Wars' movie release was 2005's 'Revenge of the Sith' - and we believe there's substantial pent-up demand," Iger said.

The blockbuster deal announced Tuesday will see Disney pay half the acquisition price in cash and half in newly issued stock. The company expects it to add to earnings in 2015 and said that as an example of its earnings power, Lucasfilm made $550 million in operating income the year "Sith" came out. Along with the cash, Lucas will end up owning about 40 million Disney shares, which is about 2.2 percent of the 1.83 billion shares that will be in circulation when the transaction closes. Disney did not say when that would happen.

The deal includes Lucasfilm's prized high-tech production companies, Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound, as well as rights to the "Indiana Jones" franchise. Lucasfilm will continue to be headquartered in San Francisco's Presidio park, and employees are to remain in their current locations. Disney has its headquarters in Burbank, Calif., near Los Angeles.

The deal brings Lucasfilm under the Disney banner with other brands including Pixar, the Muppets, Marvel, ESPN and ABC, all companies that Disney has acquired over the years. Coincidentally, Lucas created Pixar as a division of Lucasfilm to develop computerized filmmaking techniques before he sold it to Apple's Steve Jobs, who later sold it to Disney.

Twitter went wild with the news as fans speculated on mash-up titles for future movies, using the hashtag "DisneyStarWars." Among the amusing attempts were "When You Wish Upon a Death Star" and "Bambi Wan Kenobi." "Star Wars," "LucasArts," "Disney," and "Indiana Jones" were all trending topics on Twitter after the deal was announced late Tuesday afternoon.

Fan club co-founder Ming Pan, a graphic designer in San Francisco, said he was glad audiences would get another "Star Wars" movie but worried whether the franchise would thrive after Lucas passes the torch.

"It's something that I thought may happen down the line, but I just didn't expect it to happen while Lucas was still alive because he has always expressed such a tight control over the 'Star Wars' license," Pan said.

AP Technology Writer Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this story.

The iPad mini sports a screen just under 8 inches and a price of $329. And when it debuts Friday, it will not enter a vacuous 7-inch tablet market. Its opponents compete on price, ecosystem, performance and features. Each offers something unique.

Two products make a great combination for an earful of tunes while on a leisurely bike ride.

Heard in the high school hallway: #.

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Hurricane Sandy causes flight cancelations at MIA, Fort Lauderdale

More than 20 flights out of South Florida's two major airports were canceled Sunday afternoon due to Hurricane Sandy’s approach to the Northeast.

Among those were 15 flights from Miami International and 10 at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.

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A major truck crash has closed southbound Okeechobee Road. One of the drivers, who was missing among the debris for a while, has been found dead.

A Key Biscayne officer struggles to once again be the fun-loving person she was before she was injured in the shooting on Florida’s Turnpike in May.

The Sweetwater police officer who died in a motorcycle crash Sunday will be buried Tuesday.

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5 things to know in Florida for Oct. 31

Your daily look at late-breaking news, upcoming events and the stories that will be talked about today.

1. DEATH WARRANT FOR MAN CONVICTED OF 9 MURDERS

Gov. Rick Scott has signed a death warrant for a man convicted of nine murders. Manuel Pardo Jr. is scheduled to die by lethal injection at Florida State Prison near Raiford at 6 p.m., Dec. 11.

2. CENTRAL FLORIDA MAN RECOVERING FROM DENGUE FEVER

A central Florida man is recovering from dengue fever. Health officials said Tuesday that the 19-year-old Seminole County man was diagnosed with dengue fever based on his symptoms and lab tests. Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes.

3. NEW GAMBLING CRUISE TO SET SAIL FROM PALM BEACH

A new gambling cruise is about to launch in Palm Beach. Black Diamond says its 160-foot vessel is nearly done with a $5 million renovation. A final Coast Guard inspection is set for Thursday. Operators hope to have it running within days.

4. CHALK FESTIVAL UNDERWAY IN SARASOTA

The annual Sarasota Chalk Festival begins this week and runs through Nov. 6. The world's top street artists create temporary works of art on the pavement, while sketching and "painting" on the asphalt with chalk.

5. CHILD WELFARE OFFICIALS DISCUSS HUMAN TRAFFICKING

Florida's child welfare officials are discussing their plans to fight human trafficking. The Florida Children and Youth Cabinet will hold its regular meeting Wednesday in Coral Gables at the University of Miami. The group will discuss the state's plans to fight human trafficking and provide assistance to victims.

No tickets matched the four winning numbers plus the Mega Ball number, so the jackpot rolled over to an estimated $2 million in the Mega Money game, the Florida Lottery said Wednesday. 1351679952

One winner of the "Fantasy 5" game will collect $192,116.92, the Florida Lottery said Wednesday. 1351679952

Your daily look at late-breaking news, upcoming events and the stories that will be talked about today. 1351678713

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Puerto Rican first-time voters, especially in Florida, could be a critical game-changer in presidential race

Diana Caballero is the ultimate swing voter in the ultimate swing state, a member of a sought-after demographic that could help decide the 2012 presidential race.

The South Beach beauty product distributor is among a growing legion of voters who hail from Puerto Rico, where citizens do not have the right to cast ballots in a presidential election. At 34, this vote will be her first for the country’s top post. And like many of the more than 300,000 Puerto Ricans who have moved to Florida in the past decade, her electoral decision is either candidate’s taking.

Experts say the importance of voters like her cannot be understated, particularly in Florida, a state where the 2000 election was such a close call that it was decided by manual count.

“In Puerto Rico, U.S. politics wasn’t that important. I never kept up with what the Republicans promised or what the Democrats said they would do,” she said. “To have to make a decision in such a short time is a little scary.”

Caballero moved to Florida a year ago. Although being Puerto Rican made her a lifelong U.S. citizen, she could vote in primaries but did not gain the right to vote in a presidential race until she moved stateside.

Many other professionals from the island did the same, leaving behind a territory fraught with crime and unemployment. As the Puerto Rican labor force dropped by nearly 172,000 people in the past seven years, many of them came here, particularly Central Florida. In Osceola County, the Hispanic vote increased 62 percent since President Barack Obama took office — a number most experts say is almost entirely attributed to the exodus from Puerto Rico.

Statewide, the Puerto Rican population grew 75 percent in the past decade, to about 850,000. Counties like Broward saw its Puerto Rican population soar 36 percent.

“The island lost a lot of its population,” said Wilfred Benitez, a Puerto Rican Democrat who arrived in 2004 and now runs a voter registration drive in Tampa. “They went somewhere. Florida is like their first port.”

Although Puerto Ricans are expected to turn out for the presidential race, they often sit out state and local races, Benitez said. This vote will be particularly baffling for many newcomers, he said, because so many amendments are on the ballot and many contested races are for positions that in Puerto Rico are appointed by the governor.

“They can play a determining role in these elections,” he said, “but I am noticing that these people don’t understand that.”

Not only has the share of Cuban voters among the Hispanic electorate shrank, but, for the first time, the number of Latino voters now outnumbers blacks.

“This migration could be a game-changer for the Democrats if these individuals turn out to vote,” said Casey Klofstad, a political scientist at the University of Miami. “In a close race, any one group can be a decider. Puerto Ricans are the swing group in a swing state.”

Klofstad said the Puerto Rican vote is of particular interest, because its electorate here changed so drastically with such a large influx of people.

Experts say the population boom caused the candidates to “rediscover Puerto Rico.” President Obama made a historic visit to the island last year, and stumped in Central Florida last month with two former Puerto Rico governors. Gov. Mitt Romney was endorsed by the island’s sitting governor during a campaign stop in Orlando.

A major truck crash has closed southbound Okeechobee Road. One of the drivers, who was missing among the debris for a while, has been found dead.

A Key Biscayne officer struggles to once again be the fun-loving person she was before she was injured in the shooting on Florida’s Turnpike in May.

The Sweetwater police officer who died in a motorcycle crash Sunday will be buried Tuesday.

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Power of the Florida court system at center of Amendment 5

TALLAHASSEE -- After years of clashes with the Florida Supreme Court, the Legislature is asking voters for more power over the state’s judicial branch.

Voters will decide Nov. 6 whether to approve the controversial Amendment 5, which would give lawmakers authority to confirm Supreme Court justices selected by the governor, view complaints against justices as soon as they are filed, and more easily override court rules.

Titled “State Courts,” the amendment is among the most contentious on the November ballot, with supporters arguing it would improve court oversight and accountability. Opponents characterize the proposal as an attempt by legislators to politicize the courts and intimidate justices who have struck down new laws as unconstitutional.

House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park, who helped put the amendment on the ballot, said the measure is not about retribution but about making moderate changes that are long overdue.

“This is not a power grab, it’s a power adjustment,” Cannon said. “This is a step to bring more transparency to the courts and bring the state more in line with the federal system.”

It’s only right for the Senate to confirm Supreme Court justices, he argued.

Florida’s system of selecting judges is dominated by the governor, and is relatively closed compared to the federal system, where candidates are openly discussed on the Senate floor, he said.

Cannon also argued that the Legislature — as the lawmaking branch — should have more say in the court rules, some of which are as meaningful as law. State lawmakers can now override rules by a two-thirds vote, a standard high enough to prevent the Legislature from intervening in all but extraordinary circumstances.

Rules are typically mundane, and lawmakers rarely weigh in. But once in a while, on hot button issues, they want their say.

For example, the Legislature put pressure on the courts several years ago to make sure prosecutors got the last word in death penalty cases.

Alex Villalobos, a former Republican state senator, believes legislators already have enough sway on rules.

“The Legislature is doing this because they want to interfere with the way the court is run,” said Villalobos, president of Democracy at Stake, a Tallahassee group with a mission to maintain the independence of Florida courts. “The Senate can act according to the Senate rules, the courts should be able to act on their own rules.”

Justice Harry Lee Anstead, who retired from the Florida Supreme Court in 2009, said Florida’s system has worked well for 35 years, and additional oversight is unnecessary.

For example, Florida’s governor doesn’t select justices independently, as the president does, but from a list supplied by a nine-member committee. Also, federal Supreme Court justices are appointed for life while Florida justices must face voters every six years — in a process known as merit retention.

“This is a blatant attempt to politicize appointments and emasculate a merit retention system that has worked well,” Anstead said.

Florida Bar Association President Gwynne Young also spoke out against the provision of the amendment that would require the court to turn over a complaint when it is filed.

“It’s sensitive for someone to make a complaint against a sitting judge. For that reason confidentiality is very important,” she said. “You want people to be able to make a report without risking retribution.”

Opponents of the bill have also raised questions about whether the House speaker would use complaints — even those that are unfounded — to intimidate judges they dislike. Under the current system, a court panel investigates complaints internally and releases the information if they find probable cause.

And some top Republicans have hardly been shy about their animosity.

Frequently, lawmakers have railed against justices for “legislating from the bench,” and the Republican Party of Florida — in an unprecedented move — endorsed a plan to unseat three Supreme Court justices who are up for retention.

Several sitting lawmakers, including more moderate Republicans, criticized the party for injecting partisan politics into the courts rather than encouraging voters to retain or reject judges based on whether they do their jobs with competence and integrity.

Yet, Bob Sanchez, director of public policy at the conservative-leaning James Madison Institute, said it’s more important to make investigations transparent than to protect the privacy of the justices. Under the current process, nobody knows whether complaints are investigated properly, he said.

“People in public office sometimes lose their expectation of privacy,” he said. “This would put the courts in the sunshine.”

Contact Brittany Alana Davis at bdavis@tampabay.com or 850-323-0353.

Questions from the Federal Election Commission were bound to arise after Justin Lamar Sternad filed 17 blank pages as his Democratic campaign close-out report for October.

A Sanford judge said there is no evidence that Zimmerman’s defense lawyer has spoken out so much that it will be impossible to seat a jury in his murder trial.

Passage of Amendment 5 would give lawmakers authority to confirm Supreme Court justices selected by the governor.

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